1. Field
The present disclosure relates generally to ship operations and, in particular, to a method and apparatus for generating routes for ships. Still more particularly, the present disclosure relates to a method and apparatus for analyzing probabilities of a ship arriving at a destination at a specified time.
2. Background
Commercial ships carry cargo, goods, passengers, and/or materials from one port to another. Commercial ships may include, for example, tankers, bulk carriers, container vessels, and passenger vessels. Globally, tens of thousands of ships make voyages over the seas from one port to another port. A typical cargo ship may make anywhere from around 10 to 30 voyages per year. Often, at any one time, around 1,000 to 3,000 commercial vessels are at sea.
Issues may occur when a ship arrives at a destination later than scheduled. For example, the availability of a planned berth and a port may be missed. As a result, the ship may have to wait additional time for another berth. Further, scheduling of dockside labor facilities also may be disrupted by a ship arriving at a destination later than scheduled. Connections may be missed and/or delivery of products to a vendor may be delayed. These types of issues may increase costs in transporting cargo on a ship.
Further, these delays also may disrupt other operations that occur in transporting products. For example, other transportation systems that may transport the products after the products arrive at a port include trucking, rail, and air transportation services. Delays may disrupt the planning of these types of transportation. Further, storage costs also may increase as a result of delays. When a ship has to wait at a port, increased fuel costs and increased emissions also occur.
By increasing the speed of a ship to arrive early, the ship may still have to wait for a scheduled berth at a port. Further, fuel efficiency may be decreased by the increased speed and early arrival. In some cases, the ship may arrive on time but may require bursts of speed that may also reduce fuel efficiency. These situations also increase the costs needed to make a voyage.
In making a voyage, it is desirable to make the voyage in a manner that enhances safety, efficiency, and/or lower fuel consumption. Weather forecasts, historical data, charts, and optimization software applications are currently used to generate routes to meet these and/or other goals with respect to a ship making a voyage.
Weather forecasts, however, may decrease in accuracy for forecasts that are farther out. For example, with a 10-day weather forecast, only the first two to three days may be reasonably reliable. The actual weather conditions may fluctuate with the longer forecasts. These fluctuations may be more prevalent with winter and/or stormy conditions.
With these situations, operators of ships cope with the changing conditions with little help from the original planned route. In some situations, the provider of the route may provide updated plans during the voyage to take into account changing conditions.
Therefore, it would be advantageous to have a method and apparatus that addresses one or more of the issues discussed above, as well as possibly other issues.